An Expert Called Lindy

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Ideas need to have skin in the game. You know that the idea will fail if it is not useful, and can be therefore subjected to the falsification of time. The more an idea has been around without being falsified, the longer its future life expectancy. Note that I am here modifying Popper’s idea, replacing “true” (rather, not false) with “useful”. For if you read Feyerabend’s account of the history of science, you can clearly see that anything goes in the process –but not with the test of time.

[…]

While our knowledge of physics has not been available to the ancients, human nature was. So everything that hold in social science and psychology has to be Lindy-proof, that is, have an antecedent in the classics; otherwise it will not replicate or not generalize beyond the experiment.”